{"id":"W2555420981","doi":"10.3390/risks4040041","title":"Incorporation of Stochastic Policyholder Behavior in Analytical Pricing of GMABs and GMDBs","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risks","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo; Western University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Surrender; Life insurance; Maturity (psychological); Economics; Actuarial science; Stochastic modelling; Variable (mathematics); Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model; Financial market; Econometrics; Interest rate; Finance; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006658033,0.00006698924,0.0001736129,0.0002293364,0.00005336283,0.000009613583,0.0001032319,0.00006408783,0.00002060994],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001334073,0.00005284621,0.00004090287,0.0003613735,0.0003518435,0.0001311005,0.00004086245,0.00004869946,0.000002868212],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004318882,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004460408,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00677774,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003466858,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989895,0.000101066,0.0002853184,0.0001504304,0.0003010703,0.000172672],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994976,0.00008654316,0.0001620591,0.0001363535,0.00006981393,0.00004765288],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001682221,0.0001163513,0.939554,0.00002065516,0.00001339367,0.000002464018,0.001753135,0.00002216399,0.000385521,0.0376392,0.00003717528,0.02043908],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000327836,0.00003753546,0.9959861,0.00004690676,0.00003856805,1.558606e-7,0.0005068004,0.0001184044,0.0000949412,0.00271711,0.00004892445,0.00007671164],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9951645,0.00004335435,0.001900129,0.0002028736,0.00006387882,0.0002983295,0.000008824708,0.00001273787,0.002305441],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9996805,0.00004290103,0.0001276748,0.00001452831,0.00004156024,0.00001197736,6.530538e-7,0.000005464963,0.00007479936],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05643207,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998362,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06479999742872179,"score_gpt":0.3729896586299695,"score_spread":0.3081896612012477,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}