{"id":"W2560512335","doi":"10.3390/risks4040046","title":"Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risks","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; HEC Montréal; Society of Actuaries","keywords":"Deflation; Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Life insurance; Interest rate; Econometrics; Investment (military); Variance (accounting); Real interest rate; Monetary economics; Actuarial science; Financial economics; Monetary policy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007502523,0.00007041734,0.00008919401,0.00007766078,0.0006017824,0.00004766224,0.0001228144,0.00006590232,0.00002003675],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003910623,0.00005505909,0.00005924362,0.0001697825,0.0002006435,0.0001746842,0.00002335252,0.00003742881,0.00002009269],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003802509,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004328864,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00159836,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002250617,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991884,0.0001018667,0.0001491739,0.0002072732,0.0001325268,0.000220727],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992961,0.0002101506,0.0001140255,0.0001839615,0.00009115138,0.0001046121],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007123374,0.00001867636,0.8147492,0.000005006613,0.00002397297,4.759952e-8,0.0006957712,0.000002487849,0.00003172415,0.07697135,0.002555346,0.1049393],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002733726,0.00001546817,0.8625513,0.000005856594,0.00003290063,4.248864e-8,0.0002213861,0.000006856426,0.000009417267,0.02983311,0.1069606,0.00008975214],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9449462,0.0004175129,0.03087309,0.006649768,0.0003511641,0.001074742,0.0001540541,0.0001715322,0.01536193],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.996846,0.001637186,0.0008278247,0.0001367496,0.0001802317,0.0001129948,0.00000305513,0.000009148574,0.0002468447],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1048496,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4628485,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06686069432047792,"score_gpt":0.3674067590846645,"score_spread":0.3005460647641865,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}