{"id":"W2562921544","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.095","title":"How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Energy","topic":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; York University","keywords":"System dynamics; Energy policy; Model validation; Energy modeling; Domain (mathematical analysis); Energy (signal processing); Electricity; Simulation modeling; Field (mathematics); Computer science; Energy system; Operations research; Industrial engineering; Efficient energy use; Engineering; Renewable energy; Economics; Data science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005790227,0.0001596413,0.0002727493,0.0002598848,0.0001512491,0.0003766197,0.0006403079,0.00008695836,0.0001009207],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001617496,0.00007536198,0.000145394,0.001020835,0.0000449149,0.001231092,0.0002212765,0.00003229075,0.00002252111],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005035023,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007542347,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008727013,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006162706,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970476,0.0003034192,0.0005969795,0.0004674005,0.001351747,0.0002328646],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9951877,0.002471869,0.0004012969,0.001062001,0.0007968999,0.00008021874],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005821713,0.0000201112,0.00003462408,8.025722e-7,0.000009905758,0.000001164571,0.0004287844,0.143057,0.01091885,0.6068761,0.008600344,0.2299941],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001395531,0.0000642783,0.000366976,0.00003716334,0.000003807627,0.000003156146,0.000237583,0.02387647,0.009982385,0.2274372,0.7376765,0.0001749831],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.03803202,0.0001972313,0.952332,0.007552054,0.0005232675,0.00006653,0.00002759606,0.00002850063,0.0012408],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9798017,0.00001648259,0.001302889,0.0009350122,0.00091075,0.000009137492,0.000001669904,0.00001540662,0.01700699],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9510291,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3631753,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1432517505351125,"score_gpt":0.3971880507541118,"score_spread":0.2539363002189994,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}