{"id":"W2568126344","doi":"10.1177/0093854816683956","title":"Assessing the Calibration of Actuarial Risk Scales","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Criminal Justice and Behavior","topic":"Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending","field":"Psychology","cited_by":68,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Public Safety Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Recidivism; Calibration; Index (typography); Statistic; Statistics; Credibility; Actuarial science; Risk assessment; Poison control; Econometrics; Computer science; Psychology; Mathematics; Medicine; Computer security; Medical emergency; Clinical psychology; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002985673,0.0001500133,0.0001679897,0.00006671986,0.0001989464,0.00005775795,0.0001688302,0.000109838,0.0001792905],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00008893359,0.00008353697,0.00005824163,0.00008761916,0.0003022459,0.0002631716,0.00003930283,0.0001380649,0.00002224178],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001680767,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002367477,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001009881,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002758346,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988475,0.0001550046,0.0002974028,0.0002777994,0.0001757657,0.0002464635],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989675,0.0003594785,0.0002320628,0.0003178511,0.00004743142,0.00007562988],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005021265,0.001045475,0.05732803,0.0003402659,0.00009682066,0.00005992319,0.01202829,6.173242e-7,0.08118345,0.01101989,0.03110215,0.805293],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002233871,0.0006297362,0.9329264,0.0001846669,0.01425484,0.0001844487,0.04523158,0.00002447689,0.002657035,0.0004161689,0.0008172109,0.0004396277],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9678327,0.000235266,0.003597894,0.0002282768,0.02685393,0.0001633614,0.00003038002,0.00003279631,0.001025389],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.997753,0.00002543263,0.0004300581,0.0001003158,0.001491876,0.00002696725,0.000003642424,0.00001959197,0.0001491566],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8755983,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3406539,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06575939682444064,"score_gpt":0.3801436817076144,"score_spread":0.3143842848831738,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}