{"id":"W2578204239","doi":"10.3386/w23033","title":"Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Tree-ring climate responses","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":38,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Climate change; Climatology; Environmental science; History; Meteorology; Geography; Geology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005223632,0.0001430596,0.0001925568,0.0006898179,0.0003205372,0.0007728788,0.0003068305,0.0002418929,0.00241712],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002186643,0.00008813728,0.0002680002,0.001268834,0.0003171905,0.0005666915,0.0006343969,0.0004984893,0.0002049115],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004354795,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002247521,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02404383,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03441145,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997945,0.00005227287,0.00001129204,0.00004967888,0.0000383421,0.00005382736],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990268,0.0002534362,0.0003651662,0.0000475286,0.00009922347,0.0002079428],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001451595,0.00007748143,0.9856096,0.00002455553,0.0002016163,0.00007638065,0.0003823945,0.004768937,0.00063611,0.0007566921,0.001863838,0.005457234],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000407315,0.00002931862,0.9954573,0.000006080938,0.00002743819,0.00003158623,0.0002931458,0.002727481,0.0001511999,0.0002709039,0.0009964996,0.000005061817],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9967514,0.0001068892,0.0002037565,0.0001081998,0.000007540419,0.000001771973,0.002029123,0.000007418583,0.0007839151],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.995676,0.0001038135,0.0001546976,0.00002645174,0.00001736735,0.000006038626,0.003788708,0.000008070439,0.0002189711],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02404383,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04780775,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2761509144793798,"score_gpt":0.4524030985255955,"score_spread":0.1762521840462157,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}