{"id":"W2582377686","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0170057","title":"Losses and External Outcomes Interact to Produce the Gambler’s Fallacy","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PLoS ONE","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"King's University College; Western University","funders":"National Institutes of Health","keywords":"Fallacy; Philosophy; Epistemology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002667202,0.00009806883,0.0002531914,0.00005873942,0.000275366,0.0003629795,0.0003489087,0.00002465419,0.000273128],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001962357,0.00007561186,0.00003892055,0.00002804666,0.00004770498,0.000220326,0.0001405287,0.00009787408,0.0003440081],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001670653,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000064215,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003756211,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009526676,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992844,0.000001963316,0.0002504566,0.0002471033,0.00004391834,0.0001721772],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990411,0.00002280785,0.0002159589,0.000626995,0.00002855608,0.00006463047],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000008819943,0.0001488794,0.9912453,0.00002306587,0.00008092273,0.00000231511,0.0002615891,0.000004832746,0.00005401347,0.007154872,0.0003043639,0.0007110294],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001656599,0.00004394063,0.9874953,0.00005932909,0.00001316337,0.00000114126,0.00001476822,0.001105095,0.0004424423,0.002406358,0.008101436,0.0001513877],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9851977,0.0004873761,0.00006572755,0.006467465,0.0001245875,0.0001590596,0.00002319194,0.00001054542,0.007464308],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9912862,0.0003644913,0.0003519013,0.0006473846,0.0001691302,0.00001450576,9.637233e-7,0.00001270461,0.007152679],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007797073,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4421644,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1285245738133095,"score_gpt":0.2629874079886895,"score_spread":0.1344628341753801,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}