{"id":"W2590719758","doi":"10.1017/pan.2016.9","title":"Detecting Election Fraud from Irregularities in Vote-Share Distributions","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Political Analysis","topic":"Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":34,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Polling; Measure (data warehouse); Contingent vote; Simple (philosophy); Computer science; Distribution (mathematics); Voting; Econometrics; Group voting ticket; Political science; Economics; Law; Data mining; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000197478,0.0001563928,0.0003920685,0.0001990807,0.0006152818,0.0002216545,0.0002149281,0.0001719236,0.0002843484],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001748849,0.0001451715,0.0003255551,0.0003051841,0.0001075482,0.0002324356,0.00008315038,0.0002783807,0.00002275626],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001865276,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002140086,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01575237,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02641291,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985785,0.00006470492,0.000355722,0.0002911371,0.0002308322,0.000479094],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986688,0.000339172,0.0001318358,0.0006226574,0.00009094572,0.0001465158],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002751992,0.0002870516,0.2308517,0.00003998291,0.001227265,0.00001746002,0.00009853615,0.00001275443,0.0004355459,0.761553,0.0001302111,0.005319027],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000288144,0.00002438197,0.4193509,0.0000242402,0.001153804,0.000001606077,0.0001355375,0.0105271,0.004538208,0.563518,0.0001916467,0.0002464325],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.924409,0.00001994602,0.06918059,0.000949493,0.0001264447,0.0001069542,0.0002908833,0.0001262143,0.004790421],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9982015,9.994028e-7,0.001194583,0.00003908196,0.0001613903,0.00002763682,0.000066348,0.00001261791,0.0002958146],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.198035,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9913525,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04992491476445786,"score_gpt":0.330526352425257,"score_spread":0.2806014376607991,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}