{"id":"W2603842667","doi":"10.1007/s00382-017-3561-9","title":"How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth?","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Climate Dynamics","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Series (stratigraphy); Range (aeronautics); Term (time); Statistics; Scale (ratio); Mathematics; Scaling; Observational error; Time series; Mean squared error; Standard deviation; Climatology; Environmental science; Geology; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004947687,0.0001433316,0.0001732755,0.000004521096,0.0007250294,0.0001429894,0.001565593,0.0001165774,0.00009035426],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001601846,0.00006475256,0.0001612791,0.0001112108,0.001074854,0.0002120445,0.001198681,0.0002580678,0.00001219104],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005339649,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001861026,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001143914,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001014957,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989052,0.000111947,0.0002012911,0.0002229582,0.0002996779,0.0002589353],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977113,0.0001130402,0.0003529492,0.001767406,0.00002331509,0.00003199877],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001472172,0.0006003564,0.6664787,0.0004659809,0.0001055841,0.000002987711,0.005399599,0.06787369,0.1978777,0.04893899,0.001596389,0.01051281],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001127152,0.0001171403,0.7345895,0.0005595273,0.0001981907,0.0000250591,0.002826736,0.2073767,0.0199917,0.01273373,0.0197452,0.0007093564],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.984415,0.00008961153,0.000007584596,0.01074115,0.000390887,0.0003333335,0.0002504859,0.000009699271,0.003762271],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979545,0.000855768,0.00007700903,0.00006446482,0.00001351151,0.000003601712,0.000002464256,0.00001266073,0.001016025],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.177886,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5576413,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02064061958062569,"score_gpt":0.249769878773155,"score_spread":0.2291292591925293,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}