{"id":"W2604806010","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2010","title":"On the Counterfactual Nature of Gambling Near‐misses: An Experimental Study","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":39,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"Medical Research Council; Directorate for Biological Sciences; Wellcome; Shenzhen University; National Natural Science Foundation of China; University of Cambridge; Wellcome Trust","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Luck; Counterfactual conditional; Regret; Near miss; Psychology; Social psychology; Task (project management); Cognitive psychology; Economics; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["scholarly_communication"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00758745,0.0003391054,0.0008752501,0.0004887624,0.001229358,0.002926695,0.004412923,0.0002564524,0.0008654739],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003847844,0.0001922181,0.0004959135,0.0002523398,0.0002964888,0.001644367,0.0005470603,0.001114235,0.00006491323],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001355839,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001838152,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002240473,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003890173,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9931187,0.0003108433,0.002307181,0.0005469516,0.003378592,0.0003377515],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9899243,0.002808337,0.003807558,0.002146146,0.001113891,0.000199746],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003376405,0.008362226,0.06289101,0.000001951464,0.00005156107,0.0008225817,0.007573314,0.002671167,0.004853438,0.000411796,0.004929761,0.9040548],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.01531593,0.05570191,0.4302086,0.004237016,0.0009794192,0.002091445,0.2194037,0.01180943,0.01918235,0.2293333,0.008097368,0.003639443],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9961399,0.0001128292,0.0005138987,0.00009424404,0.002612593,0.000274609,0.00001648756,0.00001028922,0.0002251368],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969981,0.00000319669,0.002621287,0.000121201,0.0001813992,0.000002677391,2.347649e-7,0.00003417972,0.00003775758],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9004154,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9981084,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2653274951832202,"score_gpt":0.5239354939175626,"score_spread":0.2586079987343424,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}