{"id":"W2604882439","doi":"10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y","title":"A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Scientific Reports","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":184,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"Office of Naval Research","keywords":"North Atlantic oscillation; Predictability; Climatology; Sea surface temperature; Environmental science; Precipitation; Climate model; Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Geography; Meteorology; Oceanography; Geology; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00165318,0.00008244346,0.0001253868,0.0000146212,0.0005523807,0.0002072336,0.0001331622,0.00005572463,0.0007362576],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001409974,0.00007036707,0.00004946825,0.00005558679,0.0009233002,0.0004037624,0.0004178621,0.00006767658,0.00002509281],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004190329,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001611155,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007457539,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006535271,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985372,0.00002584495,0.0002900561,0.0005540005,0.0003730243,0.0002198487],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987864,0.00001941047,0.0002477561,0.0008218245,0.00001898976,0.0001056268],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001021327,0.0000756716,0.9725416,0.00001952901,0.00000414245,0.00002562252,0.0003256336,0.001930348,0.01956047,0.00001223774,0.005154648,0.0003399354],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002722736,0.0000643789,0.9291121,0.00007012513,0.0000382954,0.0002508261,0.00008246552,0.0412543,0.005743195,0.005873214,0.01701741,0.000221443],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9903513,0.000009799559,0.000129874,0.0002376563,0.001421505,0.000140064,0.00001673024,0.00002090737,0.007672175],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9981486,0.000005207366,0.0008431366,0.00001320356,0.00001454809,0.000002570081,0.00001058026,0.000005276483,0.0009568837],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04342948,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8061504,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0531180636023436,"score_gpt":0.2762579310780465,"score_spread":0.2231398674757029,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}