{"id":"W2607038984","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30873-5","title":"Future and potential spending on health 2015–40: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Healthcare Systems and Reforms","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":234,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Human Genome Research Institute; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; Universidade Federal de Sergipe; Fakultet Medicinskih Nauka, Univerziteta U Kragujevcu; University of Peradeniya; INCLIVA Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria; Addis Ababa University; Tartu Ülikool; Debre Markos University; Jimma University; Haramaya University; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences; Universitat de València; Seoul National University; Curtin University of Technology; University of Aberdeen; College of Medicine, Seoul National University; University of Oxford; Wellcome Trust; University College London; Aswan University; University of Washington; Imperial College London; Universität Bielefeld; Public Health Foundation of India; Ball State University; Wageningen University and Research; Universität Hohenheim; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; Ohio State University; University of the Philippines; Lunds Universitet; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences; Ottawa Hospital Research Institute","keywords":"Gross domestic product; Government spending; Per capita; Purchasing power; Health care; Government (linguistics); Consumer spending; Business; Health spending; Economics; Private sector; Economic growth; Demographic economics; Public economics; Recession; Environmental health; Welfare; Medicine; Population; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001326653,0.0003681286,0.0002422635,0.001421502,0.0001819399,0.000792947,0.0002834425,0.0002159575,0.001679192],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003342951,0.0002533389,0.001236719,0.00268434,0.0003659087,0.001168343,0.0008865302,0.000529366,0.0003963029],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001725396,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001112002,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03398865,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01740864,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995636,0.0001253704,0.00004918435,0.00009313918,0.00007517621,0.00009339196],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991513,0.0002697186,0.0003279773,0.00005210753,0.0001410178,0.00005782583],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007751083,0.00002296784,0.9043953,0.0001516621,0.0005995898,0.0001230947,0.0003229474,0.06315499,0.00009924202,0.005202827,0.007130732,0.01871909],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002045999,0.0000850678,0.9200569,0.0002845693,0.00034287,0.0002692304,0.000736004,0.04894968,0.0004926271,0.003721672,0.02499245,0.00004850356],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9583058,0.001806507,0.004118007,0.001287326,0.0000433847,0.00001961602,0.02804218,0.00008895751,0.006288034],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9810793,0.0009687365,0.0018242,0.00007990469,0.00002769109,0.00004045667,0.01526296,0.00001661821,0.0007001187],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03398865,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06758165,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06034295813312685,"score_gpt":0.3167015410725945,"score_spread":0.2563585829394676,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}