{"id":"W2610697244","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2944853","title":"Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Royal Society of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Ranking (information retrieval); Econometrics; Economics; Financial economics; Business; Information retrieval; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008391948,0.0009867577,0.001374155,0.008866895,0.0006327191,0.00353768,0.0009536462,0.00135736,0.004208274],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02932284,0.0002281161,0.0007643066,0.003203357,0.0002970392,0.002319035,0.0006164567,0.0006986434,0.001925782],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008577817,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001489966,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003490315,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004397423,"domain_scores_codex":[0.994935,0.001933944,0.0004514461,0.0005559521,0.001691017,0.0004327807],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9765321,0.01411653,0.001377114,0.001394239,0.005551886,0.001028079],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003708812,0.0008943471,0.1509381,0.0004622415,0.0008187951,0.0002259199,0.0002583422,0.08344314,0.003836243,0.004168045,0.02449986,0.726746],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003142364,0.001788358,0.05345411,0.0001045996,0.0006163908,0.0002796151,0.0005779794,0.9222901,0.008281739,0.004860773,0.007316055,0.0001159159],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8729978,0.00559506,0.09506658,0.001674216,0.0006420794,0.0003124064,0.004547425,0.003351272,0.01581317],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9603448,0.0005822424,0.03113116,0.00006493556,0.0002009849,0.00004979124,0.003921782,0.00009932189,0.003604911],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008866895,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04438138,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1153759173711832,"score_gpt":0.4180082284223656,"score_spread":0.3026323110511824,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}