{"id":"W2610697244","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2944853","title":"Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Royal Society of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Ranking (information retrieval); Econometrics; Economics; Financial economics; Business; Information retrieval; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02124216,0.00006277071,0.0001264834,0.0001081931,0.0005107911,0.0002303375,0.0006033318,0.00003636483,0.00007975496],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002263482,0.00004578679,0.00006049518,0.00007299921,0.0001074219,0.0002683315,0.0000878456,0.0003642234,0.000003524588],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001231907,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000535565,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003011569,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002483242,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980069,0.0001042587,0.0003260978,0.0001561098,0.0008784618,0.0005281803],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983849,0.0001529514,0.0005996316,0.0004075447,0.0004174146,0.00003758191],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002026094,0.00001238888,0.005896757,8.283546e-7,0.00002356212,1.781994e-7,0.0000743927,0.000007209117,0.000266763,0.05380779,0.0006403815,0.9392495],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003007745,0.00009507535,0.00867915,0.00001601545,0.00002834951,0.0001269728,0.0003272816,0.01100997,0.0001570641,0.9779262,0.001276724,0.00005643366],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9131892,0.0008342358,0.06008315,0.002093204,0.0001274875,0.0002653473,0.000002840427,0.00001541725,0.02338907],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9977869,0.0002996853,0.001107367,0.00001179479,0.00005824765,0.000005271785,2.155868e-7,0.000005532155,0.0007250282],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9391931,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7362151,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1153759173711832,"score_gpt":0.4180082284223656,"score_spread":0.3026323110511824,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}