{"id":"W2613360338","doi":"10.34989/sdp-2017-5","title":"Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Survey data collection; Business cycle; Business development; Business; Survey methodology; Marketing; Economics; Geography; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00948458,0.0005190072,0.0004829492,0.005788158,0.0007529401,0.002469082,0.0006600715,0.000561642,0.002174359],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04313941,0.0002413752,0.0003418149,0.01179028,0.0005848503,0.001145804,0.0009793297,0.0009494459,0.0008356558],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.006012255,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.007331373,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.6924247,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.6099906,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9941858,0.001002545,0.0003698116,0.0003601768,0.003562488,0.0005192065],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9331301,0.01137884,0.01473185,0.003002585,0.03557119,0.002185492],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001959239,0.00009159793,0.915109,0.0002043611,0.0001914962,0.00008571953,0.001170838,0.008927074,0.0004176033,0.003651889,0.03072432,0.03923026],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001225923,0.00005464984,0.9604437,0.00009330357,0.00004104838,0.00002313803,0.00123789,0.0117767,0.0006830813,0.0004828997,0.02509901,0.00005237541],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8265172,0.001311427,0.01696679,0.00193777,0.0002598397,0.0005067569,0.1252066,0.0005047338,0.02678907],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8684581,0.0007388029,0.008682932,0.0002156085,0.00008580962,0.0003526868,0.1167202,0.00009639181,0.004649451],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6924247,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6187733,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1725502381132016,"score_gpt":0.3045196471131275,"score_spread":0.1319694089999259,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}