{"id":"W2619453511","doi":"10.1111/obes.12323","title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":144,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Australian Research Council","keywords":"Economics; Spillover effect; Unemployment; Boom; Recession; Counterfactual thinking; Unemployment rate; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001047379,0.0003408572,0.0005322777,0.0006899501,0.0005778011,0.001859894,0.000321355,0.0006184275,0.003592403],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005398506,0.0002722167,0.0005690763,0.0006606146,0.0006744514,0.0007026571,0.0007995508,0.001309744,0.000157114],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002903965,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001721664,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.4386404,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2662115,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996147,0.00005910564,0.0000146794,0.00007386528,0.00007815043,0.0001594208],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985586,0.0006340161,0.000384942,0.00005807545,0.000208177,0.000156134],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001160034,0.0001758255,0.3709731,0.0001445769,0.0005593119,0.0006916085,0.0006093002,0.5690447,0.003746185,0.02980397,0.00454451,0.01854693],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000520067,0.0001313253,0.4322235,0.00006295843,0.0001610281,0.00007197721,0.0007675256,0.5529744,0.001310675,0.008498733,0.00364776,0.0000981779],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9903829,0.0003253297,0.003052626,0.0005917763,0.00003364774,0.00001731329,0.0009840174,0.00008253645,0.004529842],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990296,0.0000843071,0.0001297904,0.00002244238,0.000006855312,0.000002120141,0.000268925,0.000003942904,0.0004519258],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4386404,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8721744,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.00903693324618125,"score_gpt":0.2049881347174368,"score_spread":0.1959512014712556,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}