{"id":"W2621113422","doi":"10.1007/s00442-017-3890-8","title":"Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Oecologia","topic":"Avian ecology and behavior","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":74,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; University of Northern British Columbia; University of Saskatchewan","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Population; Biology; Insectivore; Ecology; Vital rates; Population growth; Climate change; Fledge; Population model; Juvenile; Latitude; Habitat; Geography; Predation; Demography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007419766,0.0003963375,0.0004569545,0.0003620266,0.0003300158,0.001018743,0.000581518,0.0004637809,0.00270582],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002063468,0.0003464578,0.0006251616,0.0003917381,0.0003623722,0.001574357,0.0005682747,0.0008789594,0.0003849229],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005441285,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00039374,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01112328,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01921241,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998555,0.00004072149,0.00000694337,0.00005796478,0.000009332532,0.00002950903],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994602,0.0002410704,0.000127566,0.00005385967,0.00004954041,0.00006778685],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001276534,0.0001320947,0.1701676,0.00006384018,0.0006159069,0.0001402003,0.0003061895,0.785071,0.003204004,0.01538553,0.002120544,0.02266541],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000871152,0.00002170883,0.02512635,0.000006000481,0.0000796114,0.00003398898,0.00006880101,0.9685434,0.00009753412,0.005739918,0.0002637636,0.00001020381],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9652754,0.0001979744,0.03188296,0.0002754118,0.00002462653,0.000008727851,0.0002809177,0.00007523008,0.001978792],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9975504,0.00007857771,0.001305466,0.00003249789,0.00001116525,0.000005570291,0.0001344036,0.00001913419,0.0008628041],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01112328,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02211708,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02039347846020985,"score_gpt":0.2640755224693226,"score_spread":0.2436820440091128,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}