{"id":"W2621815566","doi":"","title":"Probabilistic Reasoning in Preschoolers: Random Sampling and Base Rate","year":2006,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","topic":"Child and Animal Learning Development","field":"Psychology","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Probabilistic logic; Psychology; Population; Cognition; Cognitive development; Cognitive psychology; Cognitive science; Artificial intelligence; Computer science; Sociology; Demography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004225045,0.0003691337,0.0006253255,0.001040738,0.0003291357,0.002419309,0.0004955265,0.0009075108,0.002857078],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02442086,0.0005886935,0.0003863745,0.0004245488,0.002427715,0.003623668,0.0008757171,0.00133661,0.0005479499],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007962097,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000897693,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007924802,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005103795,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988832,0.00027926,0.0001259058,0.0002458617,0.0003330718,0.0001327455],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.986643,0.008903177,0.002168504,0.001185582,0.0006347622,0.0004650201],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001027982,0.0006417934,0.6243812,0.0007044706,0.0001449103,0.007891314,0.06511803,0.002513839,0.03034361,0.04174079,0.003305363,0.2221867],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00019896,0.001396748,0.7885521,0.0005725565,0.0003617417,0.01411487,0.0223676,0.01070882,0.01804029,0.1228757,0.02051988,0.0002907882],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9843188,0.002502078,0.005916832,0.0006687078,0.00002799529,0.00003781527,0.0001243811,0.0001381891,0.006265114],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9915007,0.001034316,0.005913182,0.0001090079,0.0000119877,0.00003753756,0.00009080472,0.00002042114,0.001282095],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007924802,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02234447,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01477260151813151,"score_gpt":0.2321769678076444,"score_spread":0.2174043662895129,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}