{"id":"W2725351139","doi":"","title":"Can the CFSBC Activity Index Nowcast U.S. Real GDP Growth","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Chicago Fed Letter","topic":"Economic Growth and Productivity","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Nowcasting; Index (typography); Gross domestic product; Real gross domestic product; Quarter (Canadian coin); Economics; Economic indicator; Econometrics; Business cycle; Product (mathematics); Macroeconomics; Geography; Computer science; Mathematics; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006902999,0.0002318076,0.000400526,0.00008519783,0.0009075018,0.0003931817,0.0008718115,0.0001580661,0.0003274989],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001793552,0.000206817,0.0001681343,0.00005595892,0.0002967417,0.0004319965,0.0001745512,0.0005436516,0.0008275911],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009047749,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002474158,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003190631,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009346303,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984807,0.00003277173,0.0003321329,0.0006426021,0.00003889866,0.0004728843],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977849,0.00006818458,0.0005166258,0.001494079,0.00002363512,0.0001126174],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008653161,0.0001162501,0.9142946,0.00003383215,0.0001141172,0.00001179951,0.0007189169,0.000002426869,0.0002279696,0.03870247,0.04311718,0.002573873],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005529484,0.00003800924,0.9004648,0.000005567202,0.000006920243,0.000007056785,0.000007531761,0.0002054959,0.0005463076,0.03049209,0.06730912,0.0003641192],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8249726,0.00005690987,0.0001766999,0.1059378,0.001062173,0.0002054849,0.0001404675,0.00003699165,0.06741096],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9922503,0.00005976216,0.00004045213,0.004168192,0.001566894,0.00003452126,0.000006951324,0.00003501495,0.001837978],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1672777,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999504,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03234619930354832,"score_gpt":0.2200954775167394,"score_spread":0.1877492782131911,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}