{"id":"W2730089776","doi":"10.1038/nature22786","title":"Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Biology; Evolutionary biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007001142,0.0001453372,0.0001747467,0.0000900718,0.002214927,0.0005537878,0.001029585,0.0008173251,0.0001938127],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002707137,0.0001360587,0.0001394696,0.0001654938,0.0004583227,0.000461212,0.0001098473,0.001119873,0.00009197655],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005640564,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008007202,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001908591,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006412213,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983374,0.00009056675,0.0001431069,0.0003104201,0.0006696038,0.000448883],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988715,0.00003018082,0.0001596669,0.0006946963,0.0001259902,0.0001179679],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003295431,0.0001148312,0.6224795,0.00004898062,0.0001091992,0.00006986722,0.005671226,0.000002229215,0.00003529613,0.2961892,0.05688911,0.01835763],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001849042,0.00001441539,0.6029131,0.00001623389,0.00002114486,3.521571e-7,0.0008881882,0.000002701703,0.00006223712,0.01418691,0.3815342,0.0001755909],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.476131,0.001272457,0.00002747969,0.008384384,0.004712048,0.0004638532,0.00002857836,0.0002479869,0.5087323],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9889728,0.0002787953,0.000330475,0.0006979214,0.001041191,0.00001588688,0.000004190663,0.00001595545,0.008642776],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.5128418,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9990841,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0162588462863779,"score_gpt":0.3244510069031908,"score_spread":0.3081921606168129,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}