{"id":"W2751492250","doi":"","title":"Long-Term Demographic Forecasts and Implications for Health Care Resources and Repurposing","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Global Health Care Issues","field":"Health Professions","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Baby boom; Life expectancy; Repurposing; Population; Term (time); Demographic economics; Long-term care; Economics; Health care; Business; Gerontology; Demography; Economic growth; Medicine; Engineering; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts","research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003260726,0.0003776435,0.0009100064,0.0006317475,0.003125957,0.0001575623,0.0006505477,0.0008485272,0.000007347925],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001071235,0.0004100511,0.0001202852,0.00008174519,0.0005731379,0.000121069,0.001878418,0.002391891,0.000002711884],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001493775,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001727667,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007601823,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01383451,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9949148,0.0007779566,0.001146454,0.001386975,0.000180006,0.001593866],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9946619,0.001762845,0.0007949466,0.001678564,0.0004546956,0.0006470715],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002013224,0.00003656203,0.5951725,0.00640668,0.00005980757,0.000004404887,0.008745466,0.0000128818,0.000004657099,0.0005293334,0.0006484269,0.388178],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001244323,0.0002875261,0.9328811,0.003898545,0.00001975091,0.00001374326,0.003731104,0.000193132,0.000002063868,0.003385023,0.05385808,0.0004856756],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9565108,0.01810931,0.000006209327,0.008156763,0.0006155005,0.006893802,0.0007171708,0.00009050723,0.008899975],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9177046,0.07616229,0.00171661,0.0005730864,0.0005633813,0.002327265,0.0002678878,0.0001221262,0.0005627233],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3876923,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999096,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09790894863536802,"score_gpt":0.4917873140347946,"score_spread":0.3938783653994266,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}