{"id":"W2757874438","doi":"10.1097/acm.0000000000001938","title":"In Search of Black Swans: Identifying Students at Risk of Failing Licensing Examinations","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Academic Medicine","topic":"Medical Education and Admissions","field":"Medicine","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Impact; Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Summative assessment; Predictive validity; Medicine; Receiver operating characteristic; Predictive modelling; Risk assessment; Cohort; Framingham Risk Score; Internal medicine; Psychology; Clinical psychology; Computer science; Machine learning; Mathematics education; Formative assessment","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001786485,0.0004014029,0.0004086333,0.001694627,0.001114029,0.001312738,0.0007706272,0.0006203747,0.002960666],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01339135,0.0001839441,0.0003427936,0.001179698,0.0005306,0.0009805023,0.001647379,0.001178592,0.0005388033],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001006535,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003613422,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04631785,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.08834601,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992983,0.000150861,0.00005026497,0.0001132675,0.0002354707,0.0001517176],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9945036,0.0009454601,0.002299432,0.0001878387,0.0009576787,0.001105944],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001305178,0.00002891767,0.9967225,0.000004444279,0.000004860479,0.00002085388,0.0001742929,0.00004234106,0.00003371429,0.00004936289,0.0001671306,0.00273852],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003009618,0.00008982656,0.9938999,0.00003848422,0.00001703956,0.00005572253,0.002300626,0.002611551,0.0001982581,0.0003118663,0.0004665597,0.000007087663],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9985032,0.00006353889,0.0002214674,0.0004732434,0.000008784484,0.00001346526,0.0001028609,0.000006372073,0.000607097],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998941,0.0000629364,0.000265614,0.00007202316,0.000006402126,0.000009341192,0.0001586048,0.000003366291,0.0004807436],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04631785,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09209651,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1283881165028875,"score_gpt":0.4837211549512799,"score_spread":0.3553330384483925,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}