{"id":"W2765825026","doi":"10.1080/09636412.2017.1386938","title":"The Loyalty Trap: Regime Ethnic Exclusion, Commitment Problems, and Civil War Duration in Syria and Beyond","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Security Studies","topic":"Political Conflict and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":49,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Société et Culture","keywords":"Ethnic group; Surrender; Political science; Spanish Civil War; Political economy; Suspect; Development economics; Loyalty; Criminology; Sociology; Law; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009519709,0.00008355702,0.0001490022,0.00001106903,0.002263202,0.00008798396,0.0001573675,0.00005169326,0.00000243785],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000921224,0.00005796946,0.00001747987,0.0000368419,0.001082406,0.0001800593,0.0001978679,0.0001204323,0.000001828588],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005358868,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002917736,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003364787,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1686048,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990969,0.000122475,0.0001529504,0.000161635,0.0002072268,0.0002587651],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993215,0.0002695962,0.0001081879,0.0001755052,0.0000640643,0.00006117223],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003791186,0.00008187264,0.03428342,0.0001123543,0.00008786213,0.000008834545,0.4537272,1.457219e-7,0.00002847325,0.491291,0.007513096,0.01282785],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006674099,0.00007556107,0.4042482,0.0001070742,0.0000243964,7.643037e-7,0.02223775,0.00003291799,0.00003190016,0.2302413,0.3421196,0.0002130745],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8709666,0.04283663,0.000001315386,0.0605664,0.0002960974,0.0005227017,0.00001398309,0.00002694927,0.0247693],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9697241,0.0291445,0.000006102123,0.000221606,0.00009279485,0.00002430355,3.998886e-7,0.000002996941,0.0007831797],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4314894,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9990357,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0660813346480235,"score_gpt":0.3653027988628202,"score_spread":0.2992214642147967,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}