{"id":"W2766673526","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2020.04.001","title":"The welfare and distributional effects of fiscal volatility: A quantitative evaluation","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Review of Economic Dynamics","topic":"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Volatility (finance); Welfare; Incomplete markets; Government spending; Systematic risk; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Fiscal policy; Econometrics; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008765024,0.0008962879,0.001433107,0.003217718,0.000558992,0.002890798,0.0008423381,0.00149342,0.003344769],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02291949,0.0002922289,0.0008958622,0.003061176,0.003513134,0.004410671,0.002050152,0.00153596,0.0001685328],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001964252,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002273373,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001822658,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002080018,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970689,0.001770726,0.000131268,0.0001443429,0.0006719059,0.0002129274],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9772887,0.0183409,0.001370079,0.00072979,0.00202316,0.0002473947],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00033845,0.0001818823,0.007525196,0.001212314,0.0005977681,0.0001097991,0.0001606567,0.05760137,0.0005693004,0.8114802,0.005968814,0.1142543],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008820495,0.0002818776,0.01283562,0.00118796,0.0005318836,0.0002274134,0.000783628,0.03547238,0.0009353967,0.9207553,0.02684779,0.0000526264],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3296037,0.2783847,0.1878279,0.06949579,0.001779162,0.0002630968,0.00265234,0.0001428149,0.1298505],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8841286,0.09971004,0.008757334,0.001433636,0.001742349,0.0001360739,0.0003994317,0.00005760853,0.003634979],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008765024,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04635447,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03285385363820356,"score_gpt":0.272002874587941,"score_spread":0.2391490209497374,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}