{"id":"W2767104386","doi":"10.1111/ddi.12669","title":"Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Diversity and Distributions","topic":"Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":57,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Biological dispersal; Lag; Post hoc; Narrative; Alien species; Population; Ecology; Process (computing); History; Geography; Invasive species; Biology; Computer science; Demography; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03005973,0.0006909019,0.0005154683,0.00191868,0.003242537,0.009850298,0.001802106,0.003086103,0.004791896],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1548375,0.0007986265,0.000341737,0.001567336,0.02171717,0.02691054,0.005556402,0.007836419,0.000735894],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001828491,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001500438,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004778432,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004008918,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9852587,0.01162043,0.0005117593,0.001033668,0.001174216,0.0004012558],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7972941,0.1712144,0.01292918,0.01197854,0.004296006,0.002287828],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"qualitative","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004878432,0.000111031,0.1172746,0.001193584,0.0003240638,0.003132138,0.4574753,0.004189178,0.00194404,0.2145952,0.03932503,0.159948],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002353572,0.0001106768,0.02093625,0.001990028,0.0001027341,0.003375502,0.2800823,0.01039479,0.001711632,0.5859146,0.09512307,0.0002348592],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4226281,0.01512503,0.08908805,0.418625,0.001712428,0.0001116507,0.001393656,0.000402223,0.0509139],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9832199,0.003266053,0.006228139,0.004994981,0.0003162834,0.00007201784,0.000121591,0.0000669001,0.001714345],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03005973,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1589729,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0256904366068302,"score_gpt":0.2650132955650161,"score_spread":0.2393228589581859,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}