{"id":"W2767807782","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0202288","title":"Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PLoS ONE","topic":"Cultural Differences and Values","field":"Psychology","cited_by":36,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Incentive; Population; Context (archaeology); Psychology; Social psychology; Task (project management); Cognitive psychology; Economics; Microeconomics; Demography; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002297994,0.0001960834,0.0005323401,0.0001049623,0.0001327833,0.00004771815,0.0002230607,0.0001281427,0.0002306048],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002311958,0.0001586851,0.00004668126,0.0003799026,0.0002782207,0.0002945489,0.00007500598,0.0001256305,0.00005512962],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004358382,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002398792,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005395133,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00113187,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998307,0.0002263346,0.0005170214,0.0003960493,0.0002636168,0.0002899448],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987902,0.0002075916,0.0003257339,0.0002665211,0.0003365654,0.0000733939],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001695075,0.001282599,0.7268717,0.008350722,0.0003892221,0.0000072155,0.1541462,2.640845e-7,0.08126482,0.02689382,0.0003666035,0.0002572676],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005256889,0.000271157,0.9748433,0.006801906,0.0001008099,0.000004406328,0.00967334,0.0001946043,0.0006359146,0.006735492,0.000002110305,0.0002113339],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9966064,0.001494537,0.00005887592,0.0001928374,0.00009064643,0.0007685202,0.00006289716,0.00003137284,0.0006939044],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9974115,0.0001390314,0.0004247914,0.0000596534,0.00008083972,0.00005369476,0.000007514646,0.00001162603,0.00181128],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2479715,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.647099,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1352446852431022,"score_gpt":0.3597820227217154,"score_spread":0.2245373374786132,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}