{"id":"W2772847488","doi":"10.1175/jcli-d-17-0304.1","title":"Probabilities of Causation of Climate Changes","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Climate","topic":"Climate Change and Geoengineering","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":28,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Ouranos","funders":"Agence Nationale de la Recherche","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Causation; Attribution; Context (archaeology); Climate change; Forcing (mathematics); Event (particle physics); Counterfactual conditional; Causal chain","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0142062,0.0006117576,0.0008026486,0.005508041,0.0009206148,0.003828793,0.001602969,0.00203404,0.00956733],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1197867,0.000431954,0.001076185,0.003453063,0.005206379,0.006757524,0.002826256,0.00254237,0.0003418103],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001021401,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006641824,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009991489,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007496322,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9917727,0.003481652,0.000641418,0.002079162,0.00171216,0.000312955],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8311332,0.149918,0.009338588,0.005946356,0.002793969,0.0008698886],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003106867,0.00009562243,0.07189512,0.0006261496,0.0003969715,0.000513165,0.0006804484,0.08989328,0.0008720865,0.766821,0.001931348,0.0659641],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003029279,0.00006098605,0.01297846,0.0001830398,0.0001197372,0.0005195753,0.0002140096,0.1195876,0.0008577318,0.8626618,0.00272265,0.0000641532],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1758656,0.001392737,0.8058461,0.002695216,0.0002457535,0.0002148236,0.001597027,0.0002419832,0.01190069],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9498415,0.0006654657,0.04747633,0.0001434301,0.0002809112,0.0001593483,0.0004832627,0.00002391135,0.000925891],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.0142062,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07513046,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02090378535911408,"score_gpt":0.2532955181587866,"score_spread":0.2323917327996725,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}