{"id":"W2781939692","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095246","title":"Developing Novel Drugs","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Novelty; Drug; Drug development; Shock (circulatory); Business; Value (mathematics); Risk analysis (engineering); Economics; Microeconomics; Pharmacology; Medicine; Computer science; Psychology; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001686353,0.0001339573,0.0002647242,0.0001179938,0.0007146061,0.0003457699,0.0007105682,0.00007429341,0.0001015507],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001294413,0.0001513546,0.0001362501,0.00003443594,0.00006539774,0.0004163818,0.000105876,0.001047359,0.0007434824],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000944972,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006000295,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001152087,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001177441,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975117,0.00000477709,0.0004454952,0.000225263,0.00002475651,0.001787993],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989945,0.00001952907,0.0005181468,0.0003293957,0.00002188674,0.000116574],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00000775428,0.00001851955,0.003124045,0.000002498768,0.00008255203,5.469855e-7,0.0000620923,0.000005124066,0.00001315633,0.991397,0.0001382366,0.005148436],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007735614,0.00002825336,0.002770838,0.000006022318,0.000003942758,0.00007067133,0.00006723411,0.0004710789,0.00004084692,0.8436976,0.1518535,0.0002165003],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5066772,0.009455847,0.1009973,0.08289049,0.002986055,0.0003109665,0.00009455788,0.00007763421,0.29651],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9899278,0.00547271,0.0004221698,0.001612442,0.0005841177,0.000003521266,0.000001446572,0.00002647018,0.001949356],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4832506,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9556209,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06670909538872312,"score_gpt":0.3087312871797478,"score_spread":0.2420221917910247,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}