{"id":"W2781939692","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095246","title":"Developing Novel Drugs","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Novelty; Drug; Drug development; Shock (circulatory); Business; Value (mathematics); Risk analysis (engineering); Economics; Microeconomics; Pharmacology; Medicine; Computer science; Psychology; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001783185,0.0005675916,0.0005458266,0.0008896544,0.0003578606,0.002162833,0.0006335845,0.00131361,0.02901724],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002140434,0.0002352284,0.0006098445,0.0004876693,0.0008784407,0.002100379,0.001398236,0.0018461,0.007120346],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001331723,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002437447,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004309589,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007479963,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999443,0.0001721267,0.00003939391,0.0000890214,0.0001781213,0.00007825767],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998782,0.0003568082,0.0002350384,0.0001306487,0.0002665741,0.0002289284],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003030395,0.0003794043,0.001398412,0.001886214,0.0001580574,0.0005137526,0.0001350518,0.001931314,0.01505623,0.1710444,0.07994569,0.7272484],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002342367,0.0009148846,0.001379545,0.0008516349,0.0001471487,0.0008516114,0.0001041692,0.001803296,0.009027598,0.0498047,0.9348561,0.00002508569],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04053461,0.2863801,0.04900894,0.1489622,0.0111486,0.0009457111,0.002411285,0.0008240651,0.4597845],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2932633,0.3994693,0.05240846,0.0333363,0.008937285,0.0006459784,0.002079742,0.0001501511,0.2097095],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02901724,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09707236,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06670909538872312,"score_gpt":0.3087312871797478,"score_spread":0.2420221917910247,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}