{"id":"W2782939306","doi":"10.3390/w10010070","title":"Historical Trends, Drivers, and Future Projections of Ice Phenology in Small North Temperate Lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Water","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":80,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks; International Institute for Sustainable Development; York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Phenology; Environmental science; Temperate climate; Climatology; Climate change; Breakup; Precipitation; Physical geography; Sea ice; Cryosphere; Oceanography; Geography; Ecology; Geology; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003376279,0.0002364332,0.00009170232,0.0005300468,0.0002624142,0.0006047226,0.0002158204,0.0001687256,0.0005960873],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006557764,0.0001718224,0.000267056,0.0006624322,0.0001630475,0.0004097703,0.0003438293,0.0001501795,0.0000804869],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002034175,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001247941,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.2623858,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.4547198,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999284,0.00001098917,0.000007189197,0.00002260565,0.00001312432,0.0000177875],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997759,0.00002968942,0.00007970542,0.000008457691,0.00006228813,0.00004387837],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004575323,0.00001944632,0.9705266,0.00003994563,0.00006726822,0.0001764349,0.0004667634,0.01907578,0.0008988268,0.0004162531,0.001074232,0.007192713],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009104257,0.00001611221,0.9569947,0.00002246048,0.00003587388,0.00004369056,0.0007562811,0.0390256,0.0001997929,0.0002623054,0.002620916,0.00001304942],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9977288,0.0001412558,0.000210592,0.0001640314,0.000003125635,0.000002762317,0.0012971,0.00001812599,0.0004344218],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9980234,0.0001871131,0.000274282,0.00001606848,0.000004179306,0.000007963718,0.001198423,0.000003485852,0.0002851491],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7376143,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.521717,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01415761557553809,"score_gpt":0.1920144810468009,"score_spread":0.1778568654712628,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}