{"id":"W278630468","doi":"","title":"Probabilistic Investing: Or How to Win the Globe and Mail's Stock Picking Contest (50% of the Time)","year":2005,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Financial Services Review","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"","keywords":"CONTEST; Newspaper; Globe; Stock (firearms); Economics; Stock exchange; Business; Finance; Advertising; Political science; History; Psychology; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003606619,0.000449941,0.0005651041,0.0004164405,0.001012378,0.002375445,0.0005319468,0.001573778,0.02294117],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01364993,0.0001805224,0.0003254085,0.0003145279,0.000969322,0.001499489,0.0009572032,0.001188349,0.001732681],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001136086,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006383288,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002175554,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004268044,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984943,0.0006883875,0.00006692061,0.0002022314,0.0002350131,0.000313298],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9949799,0.002481058,0.0009895617,0.0003209635,0.0002395971,0.0009888819],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.004516834,0.001358939,0.1856777,0.0005315879,0.0004954842,0.001578782,0.002132116,0.04347855,0.008867009,0.3346631,0.07503364,0.3416663],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005300153,0.001832438,0.1612974,0.0002997027,0.0002966936,0.00154651,0.004821201,0.258012,0.006533064,0.4632809,0.1012693,0.0002807576],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.8415632,0.0008383248,0.02732199,0.009231776,0.0002395822,0.0002021377,0.0003626862,0.0002331665,0.1200072],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9874685,0.0001314852,0.002562722,0.0003709681,0.00006430403,0.00003604643,0.00008603755,0.00002354164,0.009256377],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9978244,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07674587,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03232694397848815,"score_gpt":0.2270685175885099,"score_spread":0.1947415736100218,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}