{"id":"W2793604432","doi":"10.1177/2053168017753901","title":"How to estimate (and not to estimate) war deaths: A reply to van Weezel and Spagat","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Research & Politics","topic":"Health and Conflict Studies","field":"Health Professions","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University; Lakehead University","funders":"","keywords":"Selection bias; Death certificate; Politics; Citation; Sample (material); Political science; Demography; Statistics; Sociology; Law; Medicine; Cause of death; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002219584,0.000232716,0.0004260818,0.0004023294,0.002484419,0.0000770507,0.0002670117,0.0001496073,0.00004756893],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007350129,0.0002016197,0.00002612518,0.0003940352,0.0002582044,0.00009423796,0.001128145,0.0007102294,0.001189677],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003192607,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007528628,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003119375,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006667117,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9952465,0.0004157002,0.0004240044,0.0006089283,0.0007131567,0.002591676],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9941586,0.00124316,0.00004301509,0.0006516149,0.00107828,0.002825357],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001073845,0.0002432695,0.08438234,0.005378643,0.0001824625,0.0002171781,0.3311173,0.000005617149,0.003847991,0.1238767,0.4068224,0.04285234],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004926166,0.001158025,0.05002105,0.0005441822,0.00001139089,0.000006098587,0.003721133,0.0001939486,0.0005209873,0.001228084,0.9418408,0.0002616699],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6703969,0.0001772571,0.0006543234,0.3171768,0.0002378824,0.002225036,0.00009077442,0.0001227783,0.008918256],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8611954,0.0001786378,0.01488716,0.07226685,0.002096641,0.0007045383,0.000007566154,0.0001167369,0.04854648],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5350184,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999588,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2303698293127703,"score_gpt":0.5866539290503661,"score_spread":0.3562840997375958,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}