{"id":"W2793769061","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfx047","title":"An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","topic":"Survey Methodology and Nonresponse","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":207,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Presidency; Polling; Presidential system; Opinion poll; Political science; Presidential election; Public opinion; Turnout; Voting; Preference; Public administration; Psychology; Economics; Politics; Law; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.06148619,0.00005263793,0.00007538091,0.0001151805,0.0008694701,0.0001564114,0.0006586097,0.00008770901,0.00008228482],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005549462,0.00003160824,0.00003545959,0.0003042435,0.0003093687,0.0004701895,0.000007008593,0.0001170345,0.000006605476],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004277995,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003424217,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0121724,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00874617,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9696126,0.02942831,0.0001664888,0.0001274669,0.000477218,0.0001879098],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971925,0.001818945,0.0002117163,0.0004743021,0.0002712644,0.0000312987],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001040778,0.0007024257,0.215321,0.00001212426,0.00005955148,4.607399e-7,0.3163069,0.00003560175,0.0008197469,0.04780864,0.007396962,0.4104958],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003376772,0.0001436236,0.9604205,0.000008897563,0.000005779672,4.833308e-7,0.01394302,0.0005363081,0.00003987243,0.009171712,0.01533808,0.00005400035],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.97869,0.00003165259,0.0001613045,0.01806355,0.001051665,0.0003144905,0.000006316896,0.00001305986,0.001667988],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995337,0.00002402801,0.00003089185,0.0001653267,0.0001354306,0.00002847276,0.00001742981,0.000002986718,0.00006177856],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7450995,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9944056,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3219762045230792,"score_gpt":0.498705785186671,"score_spread":0.1767295806635918,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}