{"id":"W2793930601","doi":"","title":"Structural break, biased estimation, and forecast error: Canadian vs U.S. GDP","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"85th International Atlantic Economic Conference","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Estimation; Structural break; Econometrics; Economics; Forecast error","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005289027,0.000351483,0.0004978205,0.001277765,0.001409572,0.003582105,0.001115535,0.001091977,0.004830937],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05084782,0.0002840537,0.0006593085,0.002632471,0.00128693,0.001738704,0.00106547,0.002635251,0.0004407073],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01120771,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01827697,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9681154,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9512279,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987942,0.0001826545,0.00006379066,0.0002290236,0.0003825178,0.0003477806],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9810265,0.007458488,0.002551022,0.00107546,0.006699934,0.001188542],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009006404,0.00007930448,0.7618802,0.0001347659,0.0004995395,0.0002570411,0.001566569,0.09323269,0.000268356,0.038383,0.04794419,0.05485367],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001627731,0.0000723922,0.8226341,0.000329896,0.0005187592,0.0001045098,0.003216669,0.1310795,0.000970697,0.0195271,0.02123012,0.0001535169],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9233949,0.004744827,0.006073115,0.02294492,0.0006072232,0.00004186182,0.009971756,0.0002283873,0.03199313],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9939493,0.000787029,0.0004584122,0.0002231756,0.00005197271,0.000004279308,0.00274013,0.00003906179,0.001746563],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03188455,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08131802,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08795825109305358,"score_gpt":0.2535014930218604,"score_spread":0.1655432419288068,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}