{"id":"W2795613131","doi":"10.22215/etd/2015-11103","title":"Can a Dynamic Risk Instrument Make Short-Term Predictions in \"Real Time\"? Developing a Framework for Testing Proximal Assessment of Offender Recidivism Risk During Re-entry","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"dissertation","venue":"","topic":"Crime Patterns and Interventions","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Recidivism; Predictive validity; Risk assessment; Psychology; Term (time); Statistics; Baseline (sea); Incremental validity; Dynamic assessment; Actuarial science; Econometrics; Computer science; Clinical psychology; Psychometrics; Test validity; Developmental psychology; Mathematics; Computer security","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03087383,0.001404365,0.001521672,0.002087375,0.001479341,0.005806489,0.003215419,0.00249126,0.003747727],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1284362,0.0009455655,0.001780145,0.002076379,0.003617415,0.01212081,0.004861679,0.004364841,0.001040806],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00238687,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.004504639,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01375914,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008999298,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9828771,0.01024639,0.000867277,0.002685996,0.00242295,0.0009004066],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9237312,0.05093001,0.008958549,0.00842092,0.006333961,0.001625292],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00127433,0.004185302,0.5350225,0.0005370716,0.001079629,0.0002686079,0.009009924,0.1099328,0.002538197,0.1167953,0.004774134,0.2145822],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002746706,0.00357577,0.258474,0.0006259333,0.0005097039,0.0001985476,0.01136163,0.495374,0.003913554,0.2179134,0.007204651,0.0005742101],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.482385,0.0002869354,0.4880431,0.005290174,0.0003220101,0.001620673,0.001542437,0.0008012419,0.0197084],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8959164,0.0001205198,0.1005215,0.0003112221,0.00003688169,0.001221956,0.0006648043,0.00005730999,0.001149421],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.03087383,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1632784,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06941419684208253,"score_gpt":0.4073478736695867,"score_spread":0.3379336768275042,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}