{"id":"W2800527737","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjy010","title":"Political Advertising and Election Results*","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics","topic":"Media Influence and Politics","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":201,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Advertising; Audience measurement; Regression discontinuity design; Politics; Economics; Value (mathematics); Turnout; Political advertising; Face value; Contrast (vision); Presidential election; Promotion (chess); Voting; Demographic economics; Political science; Business; Statistics; Law; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001032923,0.00004228294,0.00009183449,0.00004071423,0.0002748102,0.00007643449,0.0001319003,0.00004482804,0.00001644727],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000135515,0.00003114864,0.00003413749,0.0000354383,0.0004282535,0.0002418738,0.000003849837,0.0001159058,0.00001796766],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007038667,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000162949,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002633526,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004295116,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992973,0.0000948884,0.0002850722,0.00004754658,0.00005071183,0.0002244939],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999306,0.0002129037,0.0001663249,0.000072713,0.0001034731,0.0001386482],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001143762,0.00001757247,0.0008087926,0.000002657343,0.00003195623,0.000002429895,0.04065008,0.000001660168,0.00006464888,0.9267833,0.001361538,0.03016096],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001526693,0.00329238,0.006851209,0.00008243394,0.0001091648,0.0002597115,0.0605898,0.0003990641,0.0009351248,0.6515573,0.2740683,0.0003288164],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9697311,0.00003697191,0.00006577867,0.006702134,0.0006225884,0.0000332329,0.00000195701,0.000003866875,0.02280237],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9967444,0.0000465611,0.0001509683,0.0006462804,0.002273119,1.893793e-7,1.144482e-7,0.000003378811,0.0001349948],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2752261,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2113645,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02381607572209244,"score_gpt":0.309173585024713,"score_spread":0.2853575093026206,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}