{"id":"W2801090544","doi":"10.1108/rbf-04-2017-0041","title":"Confucius confusion: analyst forecast dispersion and business cycles","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Review of Behavioral Finance","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Thompson Rivers University","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Business cycle; Earnings; Dispersion (optics); Economics; Econometrics; Financial economics; Accounting; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00795331,0.0002791109,0.0003111345,0.002353655,0.0004723247,0.002456432,0.0005607327,0.000681959,0.001601514],"category_scores_gemma":[0.09230045,0.000165862,0.0002826705,0.002422892,0.001029316,0.002184647,0.001008427,0.001146801,0.000225691],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001086917,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008040258,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005452284,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003741606,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9951776,0.002224751,0.0004784944,0.0004815956,0.00145331,0.0001842666],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8315301,0.09307254,0.05958746,0.003940469,0.01030187,0.001567559],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003147392,0.0000690954,0.8759437,0.0001943666,0.0002954707,0.0002111379,0.002351725,0.002310743,0.0002684032,0.005540642,0.003869964,0.1086301],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001947128,0.000171902,0.9416509,0.000651121,0.0002534828,0.0008531126,0.004624206,0.01269769,0.0009205197,0.0291121,0.00896124,0.00008431426],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9422641,0.02872301,0.005375662,0.008997235,0.000327101,0.00002557047,0.0003815288,0.00005010859,0.01385567],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9956547,0.00268268,0.0004479114,0.0003135003,0.0003972092,0.000005218334,0.0001087991,0.00000659038,0.000383332],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00795331,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04206169,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05005154404108018,"score_gpt":0.2780607465492563,"score_spread":0.2280092025081761,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}