{"id":"W2811312432","doi":"10.1007/s13524-018-0690-7","title":"Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Demography","topic":"Birth, Development, and Health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":169,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Simon Fraser University; Tulane University","keywords":"Birth rate; Economics; Population; Demography; Econometrics; Fertility","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005755816,0.0001697379,0.0002511734,0.0003775647,0.0002821624,0.0008984841,0.0002518359,0.0006343563,0.002797541],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003823208,0.0001747523,0.0004320638,0.0007308766,0.0003904054,0.0005250829,0.000584512,0.001139661,0.0003259718],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006845122,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002885211,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04047712,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04124125,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997841,0.00006644941,0.00001622145,0.00006085245,0.00002041005,0.00005209873],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988182,0.0003598834,0.0005566021,0.00007298914,0.0000672972,0.0001249694],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001105106,0.0000344936,0.978136,0.00001879746,0.0001315121,0.00009680438,0.000168069,0.01114601,0.0002040244,0.002216344,0.00226591,0.005471561],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001758527,0.00009721485,0.9645595,0.00002872948,0.00009171189,0.0001069757,0.0006387298,0.02730395,0.0002722742,0.002329304,0.004528093,0.00002604537],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9911184,0.0007201161,0.001789132,0.001922555,0.0000724577,0.000009918088,0.002759157,0.00002733016,0.001580978],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979729,0.000230321,0.0001889311,0.0001156984,0.00003266198,0.000005607799,0.0009225854,0.000003922524,0.0005273023],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04047712,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08048302,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0125180765921221,"score_gpt":0.2833368639568999,"score_spread":0.2708187873647778,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}