{"id":"W2884510698","doi":"10.1111/2041-210x.13065","title":"Parameterizing the robust design in the BUGS language: Lifetime carry‐over effects of environmental conditions during growth on a long‐lived bird","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Methods in Ecology and Evolution","topic":"Avian ecology and behavior","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":20,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Ducks Unlimited Canada; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Mark and recapture; Vital rates; Emigration; Population; Bayesian probability; Statistics; Geography; Ecology; Demography; Biology; Population growth; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001139047,0.0001035049,0.000140937,0.00005894145,0.0002236038,0.00000476784,0.0001536209,0.0001495367,0.0002287838],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001983611,0.0000703324,0.00002846939,0.0001465509,0.0008525443,0.00008467325,0.00008371607,0.0002338939,0.00004309327],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001673917,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000005694607,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008195777,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004725809,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9976922,0.001617774,0.0001739448,0.0002162129,0.00007029383,0.0002295638],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988065,0.0009394248,0.00007933726,0.0001518325,0.000001576927,0.00002135218],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006388387,0.0001656151,0.9561629,0.000006698063,0.00000631469,0.00001760199,0.002227272,0.0002057605,0.04064741,0.00002631352,0.00001642513,0.0004537979],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004610159,0.0003083567,0.9925461,0.00001061955,0.00002807615,0.00002199199,0.0004040641,0.0003428329,0.005358717,0.0004402403,0.000001380441,0.00007664394],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9962159,0.00004200782,0.003000769,0.0001232141,0.0001378385,0.0004090386,0.000002191768,0.00001099691,0.00005803529],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9908525,0.00001355638,0.008804187,0.0001765131,0.00002439627,0.00009014276,0.000001200101,0.000007539449,0.00002998068],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03638315,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3141235,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01519016203283687,"score_gpt":0.2965642803529444,"score_spread":0.2813741183201076,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}