{"id":"W2887781670","doi":"10.3897/neobiota.40.28165","title":"Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"NeoBiota","topic":"Insect Resistance and Genetics","field":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology","cited_by":398,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; International Fund for Agricultural Development; Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China; UK Space Agency; Department for International Development; European Commission; Irish Aid","keywords":"Fall armyworm; PEST analysis; Distribution (mathematics); Geography; Agriculture; China; Climate change; Agroforestry; Ecology; Biology; Spodoptera; Botany","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004569414,0.0005600819,0.0002086283,0.0007276013,0.0002033457,0.0005780096,0.0003324914,0.0006155965,0.0005912061],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001225325,0.0002682487,0.0004350257,0.0007221503,0.0002390449,0.000996584,0.0005063241,0.0004497824,0.0001613788],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006166644,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004031505,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02592906,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02672772,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999149,0.00002258543,0.000005272495,0.00002585729,0.00001038173,0.00002108427],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996334,0.0001181287,0.00008841904,0.00003086662,0.00006914161,0.0000600455],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001813208,0.00009806405,0.4412842,0.0001578263,0.0001631526,0.0003227424,0.0001435246,0.5318139,0.00326632,0.001181913,0.002706482,0.01868057],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003024398,0.0001105024,0.2127046,0.00005025887,0.00008953616,0.00007464343,0.0005692565,0.7810185,0.0009992116,0.001318524,0.00301112,0.00002368975],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9923258,0.0004651542,0.002205248,0.0003663857,0.00002172739,0.00001383907,0.002490451,0.0001305977,0.001980866],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9941418,0.0004122693,0.00274568,0.00003205266,0.00001111541,0.00001048585,0.002382309,0.000009680105,0.0002546425],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02592906,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05155629,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01501044515335678,"score_gpt":0.2373355935196103,"score_spread":0.2223251483662535,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}