{"id":"W2887875952","doi":"10.1175/jcli-d-18-0191.1","title":"Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Climate","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Ministry of Earth Sciences; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Geopotential height; Forecast skill; Environmental science; Precipitation; Geopotential; Orography; Hindcast; Atmospheric model; North Atlantic oscillation; Spatial ecology; Meteorology; Geology; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009604981,0.0001102738,0.0002843889,0.00003211257,0.00006627491,0.00001443227,0.0002455677,0.00006022886,0.006717393],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001678133,0.00008502771,0.000172714,0.0001541157,0.0005766883,0.0002775896,0.0001801268,0.0001559621,0.00009416998],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00008536959,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002742569,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00004426537,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001793792,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984407,0.00008664771,0.0005700245,0.0001524356,0.0004773969,0.0002728367],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998944,0.0001036733,0.0005130056,0.0002325835,0.00005770864,0.0001490215],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004614303,0.0003545397,0.9805205,0.00003836244,0.00003990355,0.000005362969,0.002394655,0.0006748476,0.01098462,0.0001191805,0.001740598,0.002665931],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001624235,0.001135749,0.9594314,0.00008927711,0.0001269273,0.00004303429,0.000344204,0.008248522,0.002171533,0.002302811,0.02418654,0.0002957474],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9883768,0.00001464032,0.0004940867,0.0001985972,0.0002004045,0.00007471037,0.00005333758,0.00000784117,0.01057957],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9976575,0.0000684301,0.001850093,0.000245119,0.0001338681,8.04222e-7,0.000001211301,0.000009033458,0.00003398232],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02244594,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9941906,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01877396304703382,"score_gpt":0.2684832272482227,"score_spread":0.2497092642011889,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}