{"id":"W2888369039","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.1808.07339","title":"Scenario-based Risk Evaluation","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"arXiv (Cornell University)","topic":"Risk and Portfolio Optimization","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Risk analysis (engineering); Business","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.004806057,0.0003089921,0.0003884259,0.0007333928,0.00033756,0.0002844347,0.001407232,0.0004583964,0.001690471],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001808857,0.0002948952,0.0003254576,0.001279235,0.0002269146,0.0003054795,0.0005316068,0.0004780257,0.001230804],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002566349,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000755044,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002616011,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001855499,"domain_scores_codex":[0.996047,0.0009915422,0.0004823775,0.001435933,0.0007387496,0.0003044524],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9946909,0.0004780544,0.001035084,0.001819947,0.001779504,0.000196498],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007844529,0.00005724352,0.06018982,0.00000288984,0.00003048656,0.00001710633,0.00008970384,0.9264774,0.000001363589,0.001396522,0.006724954,0.004934052],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005699029,0.00004923503,0.01164542,0.0000217624,0.0002130138,5.250349e-7,0.00007656482,0.875928,0.0000462288,0.1052472,0.005887063,0.0003150598],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6446422,0.0000572261,0.3407215,0.0001082338,0.001435735,0.000570635,0.00007678521,0.0001154717,0.0122722],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9957243,0.0002583749,0.001011903,0.00008008668,0.0002078802,0.000001510022,0.00009957494,0.0000218221,0.002594554],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3510821,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999503,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2650433881559255,"score_gpt":0.2931040060587844,"score_spread":0.02806061790285891,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}