{"id":"W2890030122","doi":"10.3386/w13792","title":"Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies","field":"Energy","cited_by":21,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Oil price; Economics; Economy; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00153841,0.0002352478,0.0003903148,0.0002144499,0.0002006426,0.00007273054,0.0005148932,0.0002340093,0.0001501169],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005615561,0.0002046882,0.0001669707,0.00007074951,0.0007840019,0.0001028509,0.0002134556,0.0004891732,0.00002369604],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00133603,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001451629,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004150123,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006565996,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977156,0.0002073051,0.0006125135,0.0005261689,0.000571097,0.0003672984],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985096,0.0004731196,0.0002835884,0.0004085338,0.0002050712,0.0001201103],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005640543,0.0000543602,0.0004898765,0.00004970686,0.0001199666,5.627044e-7,0.0000575034,0.4630894,0.000002681855,0.5355463,0.0002329402,0.0003002591],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002219426,0.00002253627,0.002946828,0.00003321995,0.00001494053,0.000001109838,0.00003645377,0.2944743,0.00006609553,0.6949216,0.005067599,0.0001959413],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.06029918,0.000338728,0.0003590814,0.002743985,0.000126696,0.0002330274,0.0002221335,0.00002373157,0.9356534],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9928241,0.001659925,0.0009791331,0.0003696755,0.0001544411,0.0003683043,0.0004737572,0.00002611712,0.003144561],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9325249,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8346944,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1319481979112429,"score_gpt":0.4348330198228624,"score_spread":0.3028848219116195,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}