{"id":"W2891776120","doi":"10.3386/w16041","title":"CEO Overconfidence and Innovation","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Corporate Finance and Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Stock (firearms); Citation; Test (biology); Business; Panel data; Economics; Econometrics; Marketing; Psychology; Social psychology; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002353021,0.0001047009,0.000232681,0.0009290326,0.0002136354,0.001102522,0.0002488683,0.0005938839,0.001653011],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02823955,0.0001240605,0.0002115847,0.000620926,0.0004670568,0.000646321,0.0006349431,0.0007159843,0.000141003],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003912857,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002331074,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001518616,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001428321,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991199,0.0002832809,0.00007905677,0.000105163,0.000239784,0.0001727629],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9436394,0.02354835,0.02629496,0.001506466,0.001709606,0.003301165],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005482965,0.00005299044,0.9925596,0.000007337966,0.00003552975,0.00004771994,0.0002212811,0.0003151286,0.0001124561,0.0002470738,0.00007916105,0.006266929],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000006231066,0.00005485265,0.997823,0.00001111706,0.00001606369,0.0001252229,0.0002596843,0.0007609581,0.0001084773,0.000606669,0.000222024,0.000005752855],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9984075,0.000250889,0.0001001097,0.0002746476,0.000003381684,0.000001357108,0.00002369978,0.000001415271,0.0009370131],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9996898,0.00008133583,0.00002035279,0.00002795357,0.00001352689,8.026391e-7,0.00001980763,3.828528e-7,0.0001459431],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002353021,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01244414,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2579067117049261,"score_gpt":0.4362426144925717,"score_spread":0.1783359027876456,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}