{"id":"W2892257117","doi":"10.3386/w17844","title":"Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council","keywords":"Consolidation (business); Economics; Fiscal policy; Debt; Monetary economics; Government expenditure; Fiscal union; Macroeconomics; Public finance; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00458891,0.0002993679,0.0008909208,0.001234523,0.00118331,0.00446308,0.0006985565,0.001147957,0.005010491],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03335705,0.0004472016,0.0005128635,0.001781534,0.00235128,0.006319054,0.002493588,0.003070065,0.0006287495],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002944988,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001220893,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003650587,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002573096,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979457,0.0004458649,0.0001998467,0.0004647266,0.0004262221,0.0005176066],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9741781,0.006747458,0.01447056,0.001726558,0.001576984,0.001300424],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002224728,0.0002434937,0.2486029,0.0004613482,0.0003158643,0.002212353,0.00260747,0.1323838,0.002304409,0.5189111,0.006758869,0.08297376],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002155109,0.0003001827,0.1042958,0.0002818644,0.0001258689,0.001104904,0.003332397,0.06535895,0.002109385,0.8007458,0.02200122,0.0001280814],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9406224,0.003467101,0.02057655,0.005990205,0.000201336,0.0000508798,0.0009280709,0.0001122393,0.02805122],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998515,0.0003431812,0.0003468557,0.0001178902,0.00008839064,0.000005825687,0.0001049579,0.000006510941,0.0004713197],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005010491,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02426881,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4540704000649213,"score_gpt":0.4722305360079402,"score_spread":0.01816013594301896,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}