{"id":"W2893757368","doi":"10.1002/joc.5853","title":"A statistical seasonal forecast model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones using the quasi‐biennial oscillation","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Climatology","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":27,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"University of Tasmania; G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation","keywords":"Climatology; Hindcast; Typhoon; Tropical cyclone; Environmental science; Quasi-biennial oscillation; Landfall; Meteorology; Mathematics; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000134919,0.00009961028,0.0002424083,0.0001257723,0.00009927699,0.00003921273,0.000489073,0.00006987218,0.000488533],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002493631,0.00006074944,0.0001057069,0.000110324,0.0005936106,0.0001715308,0.0000349662,0.0002753354,0.00001882292],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001337983,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001675666,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002378971,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002772174,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982316,0.0001462394,0.000545282,0.0001266279,0.0006976099,0.0002526238],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986461,0.0003596069,0.0002676659,0.00007994378,0.0005002926,0.0001463558],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007111976,0.00005169409,0.9861679,0.000006269389,0.00006099312,0.00005469502,0.0001283331,0.00196621,0.00002252981,0.002325853,0.00008323789,0.008421097],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004228949,0.0004147039,0.8300914,0.0000119742,0.00001570694,0.0005295728,0.00003584506,0.1642959,0.00002521138,0.003803839,0.0002904276,0.00006254009],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9751962,0.00003540768,0.02246279,0.001419508,0.0005591811,0.00005072852,0.0001685423,0.000004002191,0.0001036281],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9946157,0.00002845186,0.004528569,0.0001502823,0.0006486007,1.010785e-7,0.0000209072,0.000003278783,0.000004152157],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1623297,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5349094,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03906420419330447,"score_gpt":0.306559443068876,"score_spread":0.2674952388755715,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}