{"id":"W2897031124","doi":"10.1029/2018gl079362","title":"Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":61,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Natural Environment Research Council; Office of Science; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; U.S. Department of Energy; Barcelona Supercomputing Center; European Commission; Sight Research UK; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; National Science Council; National Science Foundation; Climate Program Office; Division of Grants and Agreements; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government; Met Office; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","keywords":"Global warming; Environmental science; Climatology; Warning system; Climate change; Meteorology; Geography; Geology; Computer science; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006591637,0.0004054507,0.0002028461,0.0004390801,0.0002752348,0.0007201655,0.0004281544,0.0006696663,0.004416636],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002160148,0.0001749704,0.0004943958,0.0002395635,0.0002931492,0.0007058938,0.0003960206,0.0006549697,0.000824697],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009437244,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006227642,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0239193,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01791789,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998172,0.00003177816,0.00000854978,0.00004864204,0.00004362789,0.00005015796],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990017,0.0003459861,0.0002541433,0.00005588765,0.0002232781,0.0001190414],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001400403,0.00004269579,0.2078461,0.00003364091,0.00007038782,0.0001742504,0.00004566136,0.7720321,0.001429245,0.003620614,0.006433814,0.008131344],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002874382,0.0001197255,0.1229316,0.00005992151,0.00005723036,0.0001337704,0.0001618376,0.8609669,0.002575646,0.006895667,0.005996063,0.00007287542],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9576613,0.0003265319,0.01948699,0.002323923,0.0003430249,0.00003533392,0.004886314,0.0005571732,0.01437943],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9975173,0.00005224456,0.000722578,0.00005960379,0.00002063788,0.00001050013,0.000815957,0.00001173868,0.0007893008],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0239193,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04756016,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05780176343076542,"score_gpt":0.3256195146995203,"score_spread":0.2678177512687548,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}