{"id":"W2897031124","doi":"10.1029/2018gl079362","title":"Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":61,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Natural Environment Research Council; Office of Science; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; U.S. Department of Energy; Barcelona Supercomputing Center; European Commission; Sight Research UK; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; National Science Council; National Science Foundation; Climate Program Office; Division of Grants and Agreements; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government; Met Office; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","keywords":"Global warming; Environmental science; Climatology; Warning system; Climate change; Meteorology; Geography; Geology; Computer science; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007952334,0.0001653342,0.0001836332,0.00003348398,0.0004066059,0.00009007254,0.0005861804,0.00008131001,0.0008888621],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002342727,0.0001465923,0.00008073317,0.0007120214,0.001650215,0.0005379887,0.0007644181,0.0003689338,0.001812267],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003869556,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002506668,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002326667,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009128635,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9966227,0.0002361574,0.0001745392,0.0006569639,0.001314552,0.0009950385],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988821,0.0002023306,0.00003878393,0.0005414632,0.00003438697,0.0003009191],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006769933,0.001106395,0.116682,0.0000886518,0.00008281652,0.000122503,0.00262022,0.0002651932,0.73659,0.003295469,0.12139,0.01707964],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002750243,0.001455412,0.7583179,0.000211568,0.00003823793,0.00001956711,0.0004100745,0.04637527,0.02072287,0.04467584,0.1234197,0.001603281],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9822946,0.000004254613,0.0009240795,0.00782736,0.0001571468,0.00036102,0.00003338646,0.00009813457,0.008299983],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972536,0.000005520431,0.0004457625,0.001538205,0.0004274925,0.00004434272,0.00001213794,0.00001458867,0.0002583518],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7158672,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.998965,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05780176343076542,"score_gpt":0.3256195146995203,"score_spread":0.2678177512687548,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}