{"id":"W2897411085","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.04.010","title":"Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Monetary Economics","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":66,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"German-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; University of Chicago","keywords":"Economics; Stock (firearms); Ambiguity; Ambiguity aversion; Pessimism; Survey data collection; Econometrics; Robustness (evolution); Rational expectations; Financial economics; Actuarial science; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006797959,0.0001666204,0.0006873494,0.0001885951,0.00006385657,0.0000502379,0.0003188519,0.00009199898,0.000261378],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000334506,0.0001803972,0.000251318,0.0001662361,0.00006397349,0.0005356091,0.00004104003,0.0002644977,0.00005163508],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007702493,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007253052,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001642825,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006068531,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980223,0.00005599266,0.001461108,0.0002330653,0.00003392502,0.0001935929],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9972385,0.0001276241,0.002196989,0.0002137179,0.00007469491,0.0001484575],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007208486,0.000288235,0.9305847,0.00007271292,0.0007717115,0.00001373593,0.002947372,0.007601765,0.0000434239,0.0425658,0.01163973,0.002749963],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001697064,0.001457079,0.9430611,0.00003155757,0.00005751855,0.0000136447,0.0007417685,0.005459233,0.0001790942,0.0377874,0.009072506,0.000442102],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.984903,0.005856181,0.0002787187,0.0005367429,0.0004792653,0.000125603,0.0005120629,0.000006979653,0.007301493],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9914764,0.005984622,0.002009744,0.0002300166,0.0002171862,0.000001985202,0.00001761058,0.00002287289,0.00003961734],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01247634,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7356383,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07746050488232441,"score_gpt":0.2409447075227702,"score_spread":0.1634842026404458,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}