{"id":"W2897649434","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.09.008","title":"The scale of predictability","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Journal of Econometrics","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal; Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Business cycle; Economics; Econometrics; Cascade; Scale (ratio); Financial economics; Macroeconomics; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00407623,0.0002322501,0.001416295,0.001217488,0.0001367975,0.0001813575,0.001141571,0.0002472315,0.0007689412],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001038809,0.0001918469,0.001045091,0.0009289627,0.0002501909,0.0001629604,0.0005492038,0.0005445377,0.00006171592],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002531854,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001275941,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002026358,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006256939,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9959263,0.0000421337,0.003322918,0.0003290991,0.0001048113,0.0002747033],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9914649,0.0003833393,0.006551106,0.0009246251,0.0005335388,0.0001424518],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001606288,0.0005041558,0.9328776,0.0007042508,0.00274245,0.000005748809,0.0007587363,0.001745751,0.000002851345,0.03367551,0.02086817,0.005954166],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00113791,0.0009494907,0.2692589,0.0002173676,0.0002582517,0.00004477475,0.0004474598,0.006884349,0.00007691886,0.25223,0.4676467,0.0008478783],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.908937,0.04323348,0.006341457,0.0009141823,0.006412693,0.0003880519,0.000819318,0.00001367405,0.03294013],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9948636,0.002425823,0.0009151864,0.00002022513,0.0008888743,0.000004629811,0.000005398609,0.00002820007,0.0008481217],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6636187,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8419366,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1222652009286781,"score_gpt":0.2295461222490734,"score_spread":0.1072809213203953,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}