{"id":"W2899743006","doi":"10.1007/s11166-018-9291-5","title":"Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université Laval","funders":"","keywords":"Ambiguity; Econometrics; Probability distribution; Counterfactual thinking; Bayes' theorem; Prior probability; Set (abstract data type); Probabilistic logic; Bayesian probability; Statistics; Distribution (mathematics); Mathematics; Joint probability distribution; Computer science; Psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01397232,0.0008551372,0.001204054,0.00113994,0.0004665871,0.004993772,0.001665843,0.00290415,0.003778539],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1938216,0.001078534,0.001035727,0.001628906,0.001467564,0.00882216,0.002171338,0.002675249,0.0005159336],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001407068,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001190117,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002083966,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008956587,"domain_scores_codex":[0.989423,0.005354044,0.001093653,0.001299303,0.002256454,0.0005736378],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8247897,0.1483962,0.01357424,0.007926003,0.004175491,0.001138335],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002295522,0.0004285795,0.04067232,0.0005465359,0.0007554,0.001817628,0.002068341,0.4889816,0.003584128,0.2823116,0.00802513,0.1685132],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007797272,0.0001503688,0.003460334,0.00007155056,0.0001105278,0.0004088234,0.000227268,0.6879246,0.001718529,0.3049216,0.0008469919,0.00008141694],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.2868481,0.0007190083,0.6937061,0.006598464,0.0003151165,0.0001287341,0.0008236921,0.0006434307,0.01021731],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.97365,0.0002830961,0.02461709,0.0002406336,0.0001717165,0.00006796911,0.0002725683,0.00003890287,0.0006581017],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01397232,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07389361,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05329607838990369,"score_gpt":0.3793879351215523,"score_spread":0.3260918567316486,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}