{"id":"W2899825622","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5","title":"Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Global Maternal and Child Health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":495,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Institute of Mental Health; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Université de Limoges; Dipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca; Biomedical Research Council; Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Medical Research Council; Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Weill Cornell Medical College; College of Engineering, Michigan State University; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Uniwersytet Opolski; Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales; Debre Tabor University; Donau-Universität Krems; Universitair Ziekenhuis Antwerpen; Alfaisal University; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; Western Sydney University; Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation; Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences; Public Health Foundation of India; Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit; Injury Prevention Research Center; Háskólinn í Reykjavík; Kurdistan University Of Medical Sciences; Università degli Studi di Genova; Savitribai Phule Pune University; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; University of Colombo; Hawassa University; University of Peradeniya; Xiamen University; University of Gondar; Tartu Ülikool; Universidad de la República Uruguay; Università degli Studi di Milano; Pomorski Uniwersytet Medyczny W Szczecinie; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Universidad de Extremadura; University of New South Wales; Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences; Universidad del Valle; Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; University of Oxford; Menzies Health Institute Queensland; National Research University Higher School of Economics; Università degli Studi di Salerno; Universidade do Porto; University of Tsukuba; Southern University of Science and Technology; Islamic Azad University; International Medical University; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Hospital for Sick Children; Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences; Universitat de Barcelona; University of Health and Allied Sciences; Universidade de Lisboa; Göteborgs Universitet; University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences; Fundação Oswaldo Cruz; Universidad de Costa Rica; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens; Birjand University of Medical Sciences; Qazvin University of Medical Sciences; Guilan University of Medical Sciences; Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen; Griffith University; Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences; University of Ottawa; Sichuan University; National Institute on Aging; Chinese University of Hong Kong; University of California, San Diego; Vital Strategies; Hamadan University of Medical Sciences; Universiti Sains Malaysia; Mekelle University; Universiteit Stellenbosch; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Tabriz University of Medical Sciences; Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana; Seoul National University Hospital; Shiraz University of Medical Sciences; Università degli Studi di Firenze; Karolinska Institutet; King Khalid University; Universiti Malaya; Isfahan University of Medical Sciences; Ministry of Health and Medical Education; Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz; Universitat de València; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Georg-August-Universität Göttingen; Case Western Reserve University; Fudan University; Wellcome Trust; Korea University; Kyung Hee University; Tarbiat Modares University; Hacettepe Üniversitesi; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; Kosin University; Sun Yat-sen University; North-West University; Simmons College; Jordan University of Science and Technology; Chest Research Foundation; King Saud University; University of Melbourne; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh; Washington University in St. Louis; Monash University; University of Washington; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen; Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences; Golestan University of Medical Sciences; Univerzita Komenského v Bratislave; Cardiff University; Indian Council of Medical Research; University College London; University of Southampton; Erasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum Rotterdam; British Heart Foundation; Lomonosov Moscow State University; University of Queensland; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Cochrane South Africa; Public Health England; Imperial College London; University of Toronto; University of Louisville; Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences; University of Canberra; University of Namibia; Maragheh University of Medical Sciences; Brien Holden Vision Institute; Krishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be University; Directorate for Biological Sciences; Debre Markos University; Politechnika Czestochowska; Bundesministerium für Gesundheit; South African Medical Research Council; University of Pittsburgh; Tribhuvan University; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre; Universität Ulm; Chalmers Tekniska Högskola; Bournemouth University; Loma Linda University; University of Embu; Taipei Medical University; University College Cork; University of Rwanda; Trường Đại học Nguyễn Tất Thành; Central University of Tamil Nadu; Queensland Brain Institute; Newcastle University; Universitas Negeri Semarang; University of Tabriz; Ahmadu Bello University; Yonsei University; Birzeit University; Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Duke Kunshan University; Rede de Química e Tecnologia; Tulane University; Arak University of Medical Sciences; Ohio State University; University of Warwick; Johns Hopkins University; National Center for Global Health and Medicine; Central South University; Seattle Children's Research Institute; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Arabian Gulf University; Seoul National University; University of Massachusetts Boston; Wageningen University and Research; Samara University; National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center; University of the Punjab; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; National Health Research Institutes; University of West Florida; McMaster University; New York University Abu Dhabi; University of Glasgow; University of Technology Sydney; York University; University of California, Irvine; Sveučilište u Zagrebu; Universitetet i Oslo; Shiraz University; Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology; Lawson Health Research Institute; Syddansk Universitet; Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum; Student Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences; Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences; Arizona State University; West Virginia University; University of Cape Town; Universidad de Chile; Aarhus Universitet; Teikyo University School of Medicine; University of the Western Cape; University of Memphis; National Taiwan University; University of Oklahoma; Michigan State University; Aksum University; University of Haifa; University of Hull; Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney; Universiti Brunei Darussalam; Medizinische Universität Graz; National Center for Child Health and Development; Durban University of Technology; Hamad Medical Corporation; Strong; Oklahoma State University; Australian Catholic University; An-Najah National University; Alborz University of Medical Sciences; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Northwestern University; Deakin University; Delhi Technological University; Helsingin Yliopisto; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; United Nations Population Fund; National Institutes of Health; Banaras Hindu University; Wayne State University","keywords":"Fertility; Demography; Disease; Population; Burden of disease; Medicine; Geography; Environmental health; Pathology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007366098,0.0008794072,0.002414648,0.01007629,0.0005350258,0.0009839146,0.0009633151,0.0006070909,0.00216858],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02038326,0.0009149262,0.007484313,0.0158183,0.0006663234,0.001185491,0.001953147,0.0009363028,0.0003874133],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002204153,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.007281953,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.07314249,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.09446814,"domain_scores_codex":[0.995235,0.001428923,0.0014887,0.0007468014,0.0008011795,0.0002993344],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.991646,0.002629415,0.002832583,0.0005971487,0.002022932,0.0002718067],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"meta_analysis","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005973504,0.00003266898,0.7835851,0.06869563,0.03767696,0.0002611656,0.001585784,0.001202469,0.0002135077,0.001657866,0.0472881,0.05720343],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000399942,0.0001814919,0.8372784,0.06242403,0.04815301,0.0009528731,0.001932812,0.001630444,0.000278417,0.001532978,0.04506202,0.0001735544],"study_design_candidate":"meta_analysis","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1588048,0.5886704,0.005010939,0.002301683,0.0007296249,0.001288943,0.240252,0.0002712391,0.002670404],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6492245,0.2518152,0.007774238,0.001414486,0.0003611511,0.00409872,0.08440404,0.0001494153,0.0007583032],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.07314249,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1454335,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02891881194401393,"score_gpt":0.3325654775844513,"score_spread":0.3036466656404374,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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