{"id":"W2900759500","doi":"10.1017/s1755773918000231","title":"A changing economic vote in Western Europe? Long-term vs. short-term forces","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"European Political Science Review","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":46,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Argument (complex analysis); Status quo; Term (time); Economics; Political economy; Politics; Contingent vote; State (computer science); Political science; Economic system; Economy; Voting; Market economy; Law; Group voting ticket","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004658157,0.0001790349,0.0003440615,0.0001596176,0.0005438701,0.0002511431,0.0007431376,0.00003269575,0.0001845442],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006827445,0.0001512606,0.00008250542,0.000874985,0.001757817,0.0005623423,0.0001943982,0.0001521985,0.001793994],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004151489,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000303283,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001043625,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003289936,"domain_scores_codex":[0.995694,0.0007638657,0.0005764402,0.0005088552,0.0004571934,0.001999582],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984761,0.000108416,0.000077246,0.0003246652,0.0001276683,0.0008858684],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007282593,0.00008579215,0.3992852,0.0006669911,0.000007625881,0.00007381817,0.001602782,4.243836e-7,0.0002248796,0.5762122,0.0002304083,0.02160254],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002560808,0.0003534695,0.9345008,0.006747553,0.000062516,0.00002354803,0.00005630782,0.0000738605,0.0002962456,0.0009460692,0.0557971,0.0008865199],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8532308,0.001340662,0.00009515571,0.008374362,0.0006105273,0.0007729569,0.000006890097,0.0001286935,0.1354399],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9952573,0.0004530621,0.00001742389,0.002042027,0.001197824,0.00001069463,0.000001985978,0.0000201864,0.0009994883],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5752662,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9989832,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06983718804224325,"score_gpt":0.3929246353493658,"score_spread":0.3230874473071226,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}