{"id":"W2901429640","doi":"10.1017/s1365100518000585","title":"DETECTING SCAPEGOAT EFFECTS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: A NEW APPROACH","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Inflation (cosmology); Macro; Econometrics; Exchange rate; Scapegoat; Bayesian probability; Bayes estimator; Macroeconomics; Statistics; Mathematics; Computer science; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0163211,0.0006562746,0.001608669,0.002960907,0.0009665673,0.002435395,0.002171946,0.001255602,0.003211689],"category_scores_gemma":[0.069228,0.0007370303,0.001508017,0.001577225,0.002768821,0.002540127,0.002910243,0.001921491,0.0003648098],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006721943,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001520136,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004818566,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003858208,"domain_scores_codex":[0.991067,0.005081187,0.0003820358,0.001895441,0.001267363,0.0003069293],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9333162,0.05669631,0.00267692,0.005273095,0.001388052,0.0006493346],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001634687,0.0005365022,0.5058234,0.0002448862,0.002538174,0.001089412,0.002552773,0.1892785,0.005519805,0.0718812,0.00202919,0.2168715],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002178747,0.000408906,0.05110222,0.00006631419,0.0001942328,0.0006794441,0.0006143809,0.8565098,0.002389742,0.08465381,0.003027709,0.0001355035],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3987759,0.0003199217,0.5960361,0.0005840833,0.00006575118,0.0001782018,0.0004821694,0.0004103311,0.003147505],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9069656,0.0001022481,0.09129641,0.0001195567,0.0000781742,0.0001429014,0.0005064333,0.00006759125,0.0007211404],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.0163211,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08631527,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09016350689298154,"score_gpt":0.272217082781304,"score_spread":0.1820535758883224,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}